The 8th Circle

Flag of Georgia

Almost a week after Sarkozy brokered cease fire was signed by Russia and Georgia, the agreement seems to have led to nowhere. An initial diplomatic victory for France, which holds the EU presidency, is an empty accomplishment.

Exploiting a loophole in the cease fire agreement, Russia announced that it will continue to occupy Georgian territory beyond the South Ossetian borders.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov argued that:

Russia is carrying out in full the six principles agreed between Medvedev and Sarkozy

But is it? Writing in a special report for the Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vladimir Socor argues to the contrary:

Point 5 [of the cease fire], “Russian forces shall withdraw to the positions [they had held] prior to the start of hostilities,” has been repudiated by Moscow in two ways: by stationing and moving troops deep inside Georgia and by carving out “security zones” under Russian military control outside South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Russians are creating de facto such a zone beyond Abkhazia and are demanding Western and Georgian acceptance of such a zone beyond South Ossetia. For this they cite part of the next clause in point 5 of the French-mediated armistice agreement: “Awaiting an international mechanism, Russian peacekeepers shall implement additional security measures.” The French president and his minister of foreign affairs have allowed this loophole in the document, through which the Russians are biting off more chunks of Georgian territory.

For their part, the French try to sound tough and salvage the cease fire. Guess what is awaiting Russia if it does not comply with its cease fire accord with Georgia? The correct answer is…Mr. Sarkozy reveal the squares…

“serious consequences” in Moscow’s relations with the European Union

Strong words, strong empty words. What this means exactly was not specified by the Elysee. Sarkozy however did elaborate on how he plans to handle the situation should Russia fail to honor its agreement. You’re going to love this.

In an opinion article published on Le Figaro newspaper’s Web site, [Sarkozy said that] if Russia did not “rapidly and totally” follow the pullout specified in the cease-fire, he would “have to call an extraordinary meeting of the Council of the European Union to decide what consequences to draw.”

Wow, a meeting. The EU’s response will be a meeting to decide what consequences to draw? Bravo, this is statesmanship at its best.

[UPDATE August 22]:  Alex Stubb, Chairman-in-Office of the OSCE, is in Georgia and confirms the presence of Russian troops:  “on the roads and in the city there is very little evidence of the withdrawal of troops. I cannot assess what is going on in margins” (via Julien Frisch).