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Ukraine is reenacting its annual political crisis. It is not constitutional yet, but the instability of the ruling coalition was foreseen at its inception (a government with a majority of ONE vote is …eeeh unstable). Thus far, the rhetoric has been raised to the level of “parliamentary coup” and “Dictatorship of the Prime Minister.”
How did this all start? A short answer: the Georgian-Russian war provided an external political context which was used by President Viktor Yushchenko and his underlings to attack PM Yulia Tymoshenko.
Tymoshenko, rightly or wrongly, was accused of national treason due to her taking a very low profile position on the war (in contrast to Yushchenko). This ticked off the PM, and she finally came out in public ridiculing attacks on her (see Ukrainiana for detailed video coverage).
The full force response came when Tymoshenko’s BYuT party crossed coalition ranks and joined with the opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych’s Party of Regions to castrate emasculate the president in all kinds of ways by, for example, taking away the power of local state appointments (for the latest on this see pravda.com.ua).
What happens next? We wait. There is a “waiting” period of about two weeks when the government can be salvaged, but yet another set of pre-term elections is a distinct possibility.
All of this is around the upcoming EU-Ukraine summit in France on September 9th.
The repeat (annual) political crises in Ukraine have already made Ukraine look as a Belgium relatively young democracy. But while governmental crises are part of a natural democratic process through which political interests attempt to find an equilibrium, they inevitably hurt Ukraine’s negotiating position. For example, EU might open the door for membership to Belgrade as soon as next year (i.e. candidate status). Kyiv meanwhile cannot even secure a pathetic “European perspective” statement.
Blogs
For one reason or another, Ukraine has been the subject of the blogosphere discussion. Nosemonkey looks at how the country is positioned between the East and the West, and while I don’t agree with his analysis, it nevertheless is an opportunity for those in the EU to get to know its eastern neighborhood better.
European Avenue also picked up an interesting short documentary in French about the history of Ukraine. Even if you don’t speak French, you can follow the story by relying on the map visuals. And Certain Ideas of Europe blogs about Cheney’s visit to Eastern Europe.
Finally
The Ukraine List (UKL) run out of University of Ottawa by Dominique Arel has issued another of its “crisis editions.”
UKL’s primary contributions are (1) to collect official statements and commentaries related to important political events in Ukraine, and (2) if those statements require translation into English, the UKL undertakes this as a public service.
The latest edition can be downloaded in PDF format here.
[UPDATE September 6]: Veronica posts about her unpleasant experience with another blogger. In the process, she hits the bulls eye:
And an oversimplified view of Ukrainian politics is all too common, too: Yushchenko is good, Yulia is sexy, Yanukovych is bad, Russian-speaking Ukrainians are against the West, Ukrainian-speaking Ukrainians are against Russia.
Which brings us back to the “political culture” question…
Yesterday at breakfast, a man sitting with me at the table, said: “You just have to look at where all these political figures come from - either they are old nomenklatura, or they made it through money. What will you expect…”
I think that’s a valid point. There is room in the analysis to include the cultural dimension, as long as we are clear about what we call “culture” and specifically “political culture.”
But let’s engage in a counterfactual thought experiment, let’s suppose the politicians in question did not have the nomenklatura baggage, and had a different political culture, I would still argue that until an equilibrium of power is found (i.e. where all domestic interests are 1. temporarily content with their present position and 2. know that it can be improved via a democratic process), the power-struggle in Ukraine (or a country with similar characteristics) would continue irrespective of “political culture.”
My point is not to exclude the culture variable from the analysis, rather it is to preclude it from acquiring a deterministic aspect.
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