Tryzub, Ukraine Coat of Arms
At this point many a reporter might be tempted to recycle any of the articles he or she wrote about the political crisis in Ukraine during 2005, 2006 and 2007.
It’s the same story, over and over again. The problem is structural and could be fixed by reallocating the distribution of political power in an unambiguous way, but alas, that is yet to happen.
Instead, we have another ruling coalition deciding to part ways. As Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the parliamentary speaker, noted (via Ukrainiana):
Today is the day we turn a page of Ukraine’s political history and open a new one. I wouldn’t call this a political apocalypse…it’s yet another challenge for democracy…
Ideally, Yulia Tymoshenko will form a new coalition with Lytvyn Bloc a small party which will put Tymoshenko back in the game with a slight majority. Less ideally and from a perspective of safeguarding democracy quite bad, Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovych will join forces together in a grand coalition which will give them a two thirds majority necessary to make constitutional changes. Not good.
Unchecked, concentrated power in either the president or the parliament does not have a good track record in this part Europe. (This of course assumes that any grand coalition will not suffer losses from defections of those party members that find it incomprehensible to work with “the other side”)
Either way, France will have its hands full, especially if snap elections are called by President Viktor Yushchenko following a 30-day coalition formation window, which began today. But then, Yushchenko may decide against doing so (Financial Times):
[He could] stop short of holding a second snap election. In such a scenario, Ms Tymoshenko would temporarily retain her position as head of an acting government.
So sit back, relax and watch the drama unfold.
Does Tymoshenko want be more accomodating of Russia, or does she just not want to be aggressive where Russia is concerned?
I think in comparison to the line taken by Yushchenko recently, Tymoshenko would prefer a more reserved stance toward Russia. Thus I think she wants to be less aggressive, but not necessarily more accommodating (although the two may overlap).
Regarding the potential for elections, here are the latest poll results (Pavel Korduban for EDM):
A poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KMIS) predicted that the BYT and PRU would run neck and neck, with 24.1 percent and 23.3 percent of the popular vote, respectively. A poll by the National Institute for Strategic Studies (NISD) suggested that PRU would win with 20.2 percent, trailed by the BYT with 17.3 percent. The KMIS poll showed that the NU would score just 3.8 percent, but the NISD, which is linked to the presidential office, predicted a more optimistic 7.9 percent for it (Zerkalo Nedeli, September 13, for KMIS; Ukrainska Pravda, September 16, for NISD). The result of the NU, with or without the NS, should be below the 14.15 percent that it won in 2007, so it cannot hope for the role of senior partner in any possible coalition.